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Home Energy Crude Oil By Alex Kimani - Nov 10, 2026, 6:00 PM CST South Sudan is courting fresh capital for 14 exploration blocks and a production increase from roughly 170,000 barrels per day to 230,000, which investors would find impossible to control once those barrels left the country. Captive to neighboring Sudan’s civil war, South Sudan is essentially divvying up its oil, under duress, between the Sudanese Army and the rival paramilitary RSF, which extract payment before the oil can reach the Red Sea. The government-backed South Sudan Oil & Power conference will put that proposition before investors in Juba at the end of the month, and its organizers place current production at 170,000 barrels per day, describing 230,000 bpd as a short-term target.
A petroleum ministry official reported production of 175,000 bpd in August and set a lower target of 200,000 bpd by August 2027. Tanker tracking recorded eight cargoes carrying 4.8 million barrels from Sudan’s two Red Sea terminals in October, equivalent to combined Sudanese and South Sudanese exports of 155,000 bpd . Sudan’s Heglig fields were producing about 26,000 bpd in September, all of it sent for export, according to Sudan Tribune .
Public data provide no current country breakdown and no reconciliation between South Sudan’s reported wellhead production and the volumes loaded at the Red Sea terminals. Juba’s lofty ambitions in the middle of the civil war in Sudan, which has effectively hijacked its exports, are an attempt to ride the tailwinds of the launch of the Africa Energy Bank. Afreximbank and the African Petroleum Producers’ Organisation formally established the institution in Abuja on October 31 with $5 billion in authorized capital .
APPO Secretary-General Farid Ghezali said the bank had raised $500 million for deployment and would begin making investment decisions. Fresh capital can finance production inside South Sudan, but it can’t secure passage through Sudan. Crude from Blocks 1, 2 and 4 enters the Greater Nile pipeline through Heglig in West Kordofan, where Sudan’s paramilitary RSF displaced the Sudanese Army in December 2025.
A tripartite agreement placed security inside the complex with the South Sudan People’s Defence Forces. South Sudanese troops now protect the installation, while the RSF dominates the surrounding territory and the Sudanese Army controls the Red Sea terminals at the other end of the line. That division determines who is paid, how much, and by what means.
A September report citing unnamed oil-industry sources says Juba gives the RSF $4 of the $11 charged on each South Sudanese barrel crossing territory under its control. The army-aligned government receives the remaining $7. South Sudan has previously settled pipeline obligations with crude , although no published account identifies whether the RSF’s current share is delivered in oil, cash or export proceeds.
The Army’s portion provides more than compensation for operating a pipeline. Janes assesses that Sudanese processing and transit fees provide revenue used to sustain Army operations. The RSF collects its share in exchange for allowing the crude to cross territory it controls.
Investors financing production connected to Heglig would add barrels to a trade that pays both forces. South Sudan’s second export line avoids Heglig, but doesn’t escape the war. The Petrodar pipeline carries Dar Blend from Blocks 3 and 7 at Paloch through six pumping stations in Sudan to the Bashair terminal on the Red Sea.
A rupture in February 2024 cut South Sudan’s exports by roughly two-thirds and reduced production from about 150,000 bpd to 62,000 bpd. Fighting prevented technicians from reaching the line and interrupted deliveries of diesel needed to heat the waxy crude. Full flows resumed in April 2025, followed by repeated drone attacks on Sudanese oil installations.
The shutdown contracted South Sudan’s economy by an estimated 24% in fiscal 2025. Oil supplied 89% of government revenue available to the budget in 2024 and nearly all export earnings between 2021 and 2024. Suspending exports would deprive the Sudanese forces of income only after eliminating most of Juba’s own revenue.
The proposed 350-kilometer Tharjiath-Paloch pipeline would move Block 5A crude from its current Heglig connection into the Petrodar system. It would trade exposure to the RSF-controlled corridor for another route across Sudan terminating at an Army-held port. The World Bank says proposed pipelines to Kenya or Djibouti carry high estimated costs and would require a larger, sustained production base to become economically viable.
At ~170,000 bpd, the South Sudanese Petroleum Ministry’s estimated 20% annual decline would erase about 34,000 bpd, or 12.4 million barrels over a year. Reaching 230,000 bpd within that period would require investors to replace those declining barrels and add another 60,000 bpd for a gross increase of roughly 94,000 bpd. Any new oil would use the same two routes through Sudan: the Greater Nile pipeline through RSF-held territory or Petrodar to an Army-held coast.
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com More Top Reads From Oilprice.com China Is Buying Oil Again After Months of Living Off Its Stockpiles U.S. Traders Weigh the Cost of Taking Trump’s Russian Diesel Iran War Set to Drive A Drop in Global Fossil Fuel Emissions in 2026 Download The Free Oilprice App Today Back to homepage Alex Kimani Alex Kimani is a veteran finance writer, investor, engineer and researcher for Safehaven.com. More Info Leave a comment EXXON Mobil -0.35 Open 57.81 Trading Vol. 6.96M Previous Vol. 241.7B BUY 57.15 Sell 57.00 "
